Economic outlook - even more severe
The soaring rate of Government borrowing and the pessimistic view of PricewaterhouseCoopers over the size of cuts necessary by of the public sector has made me even more depressed about the historic economic mismanagement of the economy and the prospects for the future.
With the PSBR expected to hit £225bn compared to £175bn forecast just a few months ago, the size of the cuts that are necessary to get this back under control are enormous.
This is going to feed down to Holyrood and then down to the councils, and that means a very direct impact on every aspect of the local economy. This is largely due to the overwhelming size of the public sector in the islands, and this will exacerbate the impact.
I don't go quite as far as PWC in expecting a 25%+ cut being required in Comhairle spending, but I do see cuts of another 5% next year and the year after as being essential to keep the council finances in balance. That is huge, and is going to require serious and decisive action by the Councillors, or you will simply end with muddle and fudge.
(Call me a cynic, but there might be some reduction in next years cuts demanded, just ahead of the MSP elections.)
There are some of the Councillors who will be able to take such a decisive step, but too many - I fear - will not be prepared to countenance the job losses and service cuts that are required.
Some pet projects will have to go, and some promises will have to be broken, but such is going to be the impact of the cuts that such a course of action is unavoidable.
Looking a the Council budgets, I also see a huge impact on capital budgets, and there is a serious problem that capital commitments will not be met: and in some cases, there is a need to ask if they should be met.
All of which takes us back to the Scottish Budget.
I have serious problems with the attempt to bring forward capital expenditure from later years, simply because it masks the impact of the cuts that are necessary,and allow politicians to duck hard decisions whilst bequeathing a mess to their successors. All of which causes more pain in the long run.
You can see it happening in Westminster and now it is being replicated in Holyrood.
All of which needs people who are prepared to stand for the Council knowing that they have to make a lot of hard choices, and are prepared to do so.
With the PSBR expected to hit £225bn compared to £175bn forecast just a few months ago, the size of the cuts that are necessary to get this back under control are enormous.
This is going to feed down to Holyrood and then down to the councils, and that means a very direct impact on every aspect of the local economy. This is largely due to the overwhelming size of the public sector in the islands, and this will exacerbate the impact.
I don't go quite as far as PWC in expecting a 25%+ cut being required in Comhairle spending, but I do see cuts of another 5% next year and the year after as being essential to keep the council finances in balance. That is huge, and is going to require serious and decisive action by the Councillors, or you will simply end with muddle and fudge.
(Call me a cynic, but there might be some reduction in next years cuts demanded, just ahead of the MSP elections.)
There are some of the Councillors who will be able to take such a decisive step, but too many - I fear - will not be prepared to countenance the job losses and service cuts that are required.
Some pet projects will have to go, and some promises will have to be broken, but such is going to be the impact of the cuts that such a course of action is unavoidable.
Looking a the Council budgets, I also see a huge impact on capital budgets, and there is a serious problem that capital commitments will not be met: and in some cases, there is a need to ask if they should be met.
All of which takes us back to the Scottish Budget.
I have serious problems with the attempt to bring forward capital expenditure from later years, simply because it masks the impact of the cuts that are necessary,and allow politicians to duck hard decisions whilst bequeathing a mess to their successors. All of which causes more pain in the long run.
You can see it happening in Westminster and now it is being replicated in Holyrood.
All of which needs people who are prepared to stand for the Council knowing that they have to make a lot of hard choices, and are prepared to do so.
1 comment:
I see today the press is saying CO2levels have dropped due to the recession, and it is helping in teh fight against climate change. Therby the Comhairle should be happy that they have helped meet an objective, and will work more towards it in the very near future (sic)
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