The pattern of the coming election is making itself clear, as intel makes its way across an ocean and some timezones to my computer.
The SNP are going to pin the blame for everything on Gordon Brown and Labour, and fairly fertile furrow to plough, and one that lends itself to every sort of attack, whether justifiable or not. Some of it can be fully justified and these are the strongest elements; such as fuel duty rises, where the SNP don't have to justify any sort of contrary policy. At least not at present.
Labour are going to focus on the record of Mr MacNeil, and the criticism of his role in the Rocket Range issue is very, very powerful in Uist. Some of it may not be true – but, as I said to a senior SNP member who made that comment – it's not truth but perception that is important. This plays exceptionally well in Uist, and I am not sure that the SNP realise the impact it has had on their vote, but my direct feedback from friends, clients and people I bump into tells me that it may be a pivotal election issue.
The LibDems will plod along making earnest, honest, statements and almost no headway. Which is probably undeserved for Jean Davis and her serious workload.
The Tories will appear, get their quota of votes from an ageing and dying voting base, and disappear until weeks before the next vote with another anonymous candidate.
Murdo Murray will earnestly knock doors, attend Church services and shake hands in an old-fashioned politician kind of way. I have a huge amount of respect for Murdo as a man of integrity and sincerity, although I do not share his views or his aspirations. He will probably meet the most voters in a one-to-one situation and his votes will reflect this.
At the turn of the year I forecast that the Christian Party would cost the SNP the election, purely through the spending power.
Illness, incompetence, a lack of transparency and finally a complete change of tack will dull their performance, but I still think that they will tip the election.
My forecast was for a Labour victory, and I still stand by that prediction, but if they win it will be by a very tight and small margin; but I plead a large margin of error from undecided voters at present.
My justification for this is that whilst Labour have pulled back in the polls in a way I didn't think was possible, some of the attack on the SNP will be dulled by repetition and the passage of time and it really is all to play for.
The importance of the seat to both parties is evidenced by the draft lists of big names that will visit the islands in the next 4 weeks. Our job is to screw the biggest and best promises out of both parties, and then hold them to those promises. Remember the competing promises over ferry fares at the last elections? If they want our votes they are going to have to promise big and persuade us that they can deliver.