Nicol for First Minister
Not a hope or aspiration, more a realistic statement of probabilities.
I had expected to be commenting on a clear and clean SNP victory, with only one choice for parliamentary ally. I was surprised, but not shocked, at the narrowness of the “victory”, and intrigued and amused by the lack of clarity arising.
“Victory” as I think this might be pyrrhic, and this might be apparent sooner rather than later. My own reading of the situation is that a pact between the SNP, LibDems and Greens is unlikely, as the stumbling block will be the Independence referendum which is unacceptable to the LibDems. I don’t think that they are using this as a bargaining chip, and it is also one matter that the SNP cannot/will not bargain on. The Greens should be happy to join, as it is their only chance of power.
Therefore the LibDems might join an informal, issue by issue, pact, but this would be worse than no pact for the SNP, and might mean that the LibDems forego any chance of actually holding Ministerial power. So let’s look at the scenarios for the vote for First Minister:
Annabelle Goldie – no chance, but may stand anyway
Jack McConnell (or new leader) – no chance, won’t stand
Alex Salmond – everyone else will gang up to stop him
Nicol Stephen – the obvious choice to stop the SNP
So I prophesy that the LibDem leader will be First Minister and then for a coalition with the SNP to allow the SNP to appoint the Ministers and run the show – as long as it doesn’t upset the LibDems too much.
Now it gets really interesting. :-)
I had expected to be commenting on a clear and clean SNP victory, with only one choice for parliamentary ally. I was surprised, but not shocked, at the narrowness of the “victory”, and intrigued and amused by the lack of clarity arising.
“Victory” as I think this might be pyrrhic, and this might be apparent sooner rather than later. My own reading of the situation is that a pact between the SNP, LibDems and Greens is unlikely, as the stumbling block will be the Independence referendum which is unacceptable to the LibDems. I don’t think that they are using this as a bargaining chip, and it is also one matter that the SNP cannot/will not bargain on. The Greens should be happy to join, as it is their only chance of power.
Therefore the LibDems might join an informal, issue by issue, pact, but this would be worse than no pact for the SNP, and might mean that the LibDems forego any chance of actually holding Ministerial power. So let’s look at the scenarios for the vote for First Minister:
Annabelle Goldie – no chance, but may stand anyway
Jack McConnell (or new leader) – no chance, won’t stand
Alex Salmond – everyone else will gang up to stop him
Nicol Stephen – the obvious choice to stop the SNP
So I prophesy that the LibDem leader will be First Minister and then for a coalition with the SNP to allow the SNP to appoint the Ministers and run the show – as long as it doesn’t upset the LibDems too much.
Now it gets really interesting. :-)
3 comments:
"Nicol for First Minister"
???
Have you had a touch of the sun over there in Greece?
See this posting from a Lewis blogger.
i further prophesy that the lib Dems will all but be forgotten in the next of these elections(4-5 years time)
looks like you may be wrong for once, the likliest candidate is the only 'independant' - she's the only one to put her hat in the ring so far
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