New Year predictions

After some off-line prodding/provoking by a regular correspondent, I have decided to don my psychic hat and put down some hostages to fortune. They range across all matters of interest to me, from national to parochial, but have one thing in common....if I am wrong, you won't stop reminding me.

Here goes.

1. The General Election will be on 25 March
2. The Tories will win (this is an easy one!) with between 300-350 seats
3. If they don't have an overall majority (323 seats) they will not form a formal coalition with the LibDems, but will work as a minority Government
4. Labour will do better than the polls predict
5. The SNP will win 8-14 seats at the General Election (if pressed, I'd estimate 11)
   
6. The Western Isles will not be held by the SNP
7. Alex Salmond will announce that he will stand down as SNP leader after the Holyrood elections in 2011 (arise, Lord Salmond???)
   
8. Tesco will announce their plan for a much larger new, additional, superstore in Stornoway
9. The Lewis Sports Centre won't open on Sundays - but will in 2011
10. The Council will be seriously reprimanded for their mishandling of certain commercial matters, and the public will be shocked when the facts are in the public domain :-)
    

Best wishes to you all for 2010, and I hope to entertain as much as I infuriate during the coming 12 months.

Flights to Barra under threat?

The Times are reporting that Loganair may not bid for the next round of route franchises as the cost of keeping the Twin Otters maintained and in the air is proving to be too high.

With replacements for the Twin Otter being built by Viking Air but unlikely to be available before 2015, the prospects look bleak unless a different approach is taken.

The ball is firmly back in the court of the Scottish Government to develop a new tendering structure if they want to see the service continue, and with the Chair of the Transportation Committee being a Barra resident, I expect the Council to make their position clear and forthright next month.

Without doubt this issue will also be an important factor at the coming election, and something I will return to over the next year.

Council gritting policy

As the snow falls once again, bathing the town in a deadly sheet of snow-covered ice, I look from our house window gazing across the beautiful scene.

It surely can't be long now until the gritters make their way out and about and spread the precious load of rock-salt across the roads, car parks, pavements and collapsed pedestrians that give the town a post-apocalyptic, rather than post-Christmas, look.

Stornoway town centre this morning

Last week they made their appearance in town in the late afternoon, with the grit being carried from the back of a lorry with shovels to be cast onto pavements.

However, one service was running absolutely as normal.

At 7:45am on Sunday the road sweeper made its way through town to make sure the roads were clean beneath the snow before Church started.

Good priority choices.

A rotten burgh?

With an electorate of about 21,500 at the coming election the two main parties will each spend close to the maximum they are allowed by law. Or possibly just a tiny fraction more, if they think they can get away with it.

The maximum allowed, per constituency, is current just over £7,000, meaning that the SNP and Labour will spend about £14,000 and share 80% of the vote, with the other parties spending perhaps another £6,000 between them. So a total spend of £20,000.

Except that there is an exception to this general rule. Any political party can spend a total of £30,000 per constituency contested, on the wider -national - PR campaign.

It is with a huge degree of discomfort, nay disgust, that I see that the Scottish Christian Party are entering into the battle for the Western Isles constituency, and are using their full allowance of £30,000 in the one seat.

It may be within the law, but it is certainly not what was intended; to effectively allow one campaign to try to buy the seat by outspending the total of all the other parties by 50%.

That the SCP appear to be planning not on victory, but simply to unseat the SNP for being responsible for the introduction of Sunday ferries to Lewis, may to a very small extent change the perception from vainglorious self-aggrandisement by the Rev Hargreaves, to a deliberate "Anyone but the incumbent" campaign; and may give it some veneer of respectability, but it still leaves me with a distinctly unpleasant taste in my mouth.

Even allowing for paying for the open primary - election advertising in all but name - the lucky candidate will be spending more on general advertising in each of the months after their nomination than the main parties will spend in the whole campaign.

With the wider Christian community lining up behind the good Rev's plan, the successful outcome for the SCP is almost certain and I forecast that the SNP majority of 1,441 will be overturned and, subject only to a half-decent candidate for the SCP, a SNP loss is a virtual certainty, as the SCP will get 10-15% of the vote, just by virtue of their spending power.

One final thought for those who plan to participate in the open primary, or be active for the SCP, which comes from Proverbs 22:7, and seems entirely appropriate to the role of Rev Hargreaves:

"The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender."

Fuel cards

So whatever happened to the great launch of fuel cards in the islands, due last Friday?

It was cancelled, as none of the petrol stations would accept the cards.

Which is where the headline on a Comhairle press release

Council complains over fuel monopoly

would be funny if it weren't quite so sad, with the Council Leader owning one of the big three petrol stations in Stornoway.

The last investigation by the OFT cost the local petrol stations a huge sum of money and delivered nothing, except enormous reports showing that they were making a 'reasonable' return. But if they start throwing around 'monopoly' accusations, whilst simultaneously being perceived to be acting in concert over the fuel cards, then they risk reopening the (wrong) debate again.

Loose screws

The following email exchange made its way into my hands (some details obscured)....

From: Architect
 Sent: Thu 17/12/2009 12:15 PM
To: CNES - Staff Sandwick Road
Cc: CNES - Members
Subject: Essential Work CnES HQ, Sandwick Road, Ground Floor East Wing

To all staff,

Due to essential works and Health & Safety issues the ground floor East Wing inner door to the stairwell door (old payroll dept.) will be out of bounds for 6 weeks. The Fire Escape route through this wing from the main foyer will no longer be in use during the works, this work does not affect the East Wing emergency escape stairwell which will remain in operation. Please see below for plan of affected areas.

I will send another email around informing everyone when the works have been complete.

Should anybody have any issues they would like to raise or needs to gain access to this area please get in touch with me.

---

From: Cllr. 

Sent: 17 December 2009 15:43
To: Architect; CNES - Staff Sandwick Road
Cc: CNES - Members;  

Subject: RE: Essential Work CnES HQ, Sandwick Road, Ground Floor East Wing

Any chance of having someone look at the door to the members lounge/dining room. This door is unstable and has been for ages.

---

From: Architect
Sent: Thu 17/12/2009 16:52
To: Cllr. 

Cc: Management Team;  CNES - Members
Subject: RE: Essential Work CnES HQ, Sandwick Road, Ground Floor East Wing

Mr.

 

I have spoken with the repairs and maintenance team and they inform me that new door hinges are on order. Hopefully this will solve the problem but if not we will look at this when the Members Lounge is renovated next 

year.

---

From: Management Team
Sent: Mon 21/12/2009 07:52
To: CNES - Members

Cc: Subject: RE: Essential Work CnES HQ, Sandwick Road, Ground Floor East Wing

Cllrs,

After detailed investigation we have discovered that it is not the doors that are unhinged or that the loose screws are in the door frame.

To protect the public, will all members please meet in the Members Lounge on Monday when they will be re-hinged and their loose screws will be fixed; in as many cases as this is possible.

Dignitas will be on hand for those who cannot be sorted in this fashion.

Thereafter the doors will be sealed to prevent contagion to the general public, and members will be released in early January.

2011.

---

OK the last one was made up, mostly, ....

Lockerbie bomber wins the lottery

The Times report that Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrah had £1.8m in a Swiss bank account when he was arrested.

The defence positions were either:

• He was holding the money to pay bribes to third parties
• He was holding the money to buy goods with cash to breach the embargo
• He was part of the inner circle, all of whom were very wealthy by virtue of being part of the inner circle

Any of which make his claim that he was a minor employee of the Libyan Airways much less plausible.

All of which places the decision to release him more into the 'naive' camp and further from the 'humanitarian' camp.

Only time might tell....

Universality of Cheese

As the Brie hits the ventilation system I must confess my own very minor involvement in the whole debacle.

Back in the day when the SNP were more concerned with believing in the cause rather than absolute unquestioning devotion to the latest Blackberry instruction of the day, I was contacted by Mike Russell to get involved in a pro-SNP blogging ring.

I was to be part of the 'group' as an 'influential' (sic) blogger and I was to be contacted again as part of the blogging network he was setting up.

Perhaps I was not pliant enough, but I never heard from Mike again.

All of which explains why I blog in my own name and not under a nom de guerre plume.

Council Sunday policy dismantled

It is good to see that the Council's Sunday policy is applied consistently. And I am not referring to the Sports Centres in Uist and Barra being open today, whilst that in Lewis is closed with the Free Church manning the barricades.

Remember what the position was on Sunday ferries?

This was an open and wide ranging meeting in which both Cal-Mac and the Comhairle outlined their respective positions. We clearly stated that the Comhairle remains opposed to the introduction of Sunday sailings for Lewis and Harris because of the traditions and customs of those areas. CalMac gave a commitment that further discussions will take place with other interested parties and with the Comhairle.

Traditions and customs?

Today, Sunday, surveyors employed by the Comhairle are surveying the Bayhead basin for the proposed infill to build a new car park (?) office accommodation (?) or - wild rumour has it - a seven day pole-dancing brothel night club facility.

Work of necessity or mercy? As the Lewis and Harris policy would have it; except for Sunday street cleaning for the Church attendees; except for opening schools and the Town Hall for Church services; and except for certain employees working some Sundays in the Sandwick Road offices when no-one is watching.

Explain this policy to me again. Only with logical arguments, this time.

Marketing the Uist rocket range

The Council have apparently received a letter from Quentin Davies, Defence Minister, former Tory MP, and owner of the bell tower that expenses really weren't claimed for, promising that next year will see the launching of a campaign to market the Rocket Range to potential customers.

More significantly, he has asked his officials to assist with planning for diversifying the economy of the islands to reduce the dependence upon the range facility.

The over-dependence - reliance - was of course, something that the late Donnie Stewart MP often warned about.

This move is to be warmly welcomed, and should be supported, but fully in the knowledge that it is a double-edged sword.

If the range - in the words of Mr Davies - is too economically intertwined with the local economy to be closed, then by diversifying and growing the economy then the option for closure returns.

But let's not look a gift horse in the mouth, as long as we can avoid its bite.

Abolition of cheques

So the long forecast demise of cheques will now happen in 2018. Probably.

It is clear that private consumers are expected to move to the use of cards and other similar methods over the next number of years. Whilst that may be fine for the vast majority, there are still many, many people who do not want or cannot get a debit card.

They will either have to stick to cash; the banks will have to devise new payment methods; or third party providers are going to have to find solutions.

For smaller businesses the situation is potentially much more serious, as we receive the vast majority of payments (by number) by cheque.

How are smaller businesses going to cope with making and receiving payments?

In the expectation of the change, we have been working hard over the past 18 months to develop alternatives for small and medium-sized business, and this concluded the very expensive process with us becoming a BACS Approved Bureau just recently.

There are only 20 or so Scottish based bureau, and we are now able to help our clients by making payments direct out of their bank accounts to suppliers and employees. We will shortly be able to provide debit facilities too, allowing suppliers to collect money due to them from customers.

There is no doubt that this is going to be a growth area over the next few years, and we already process over £20m annually in payments for clients across the UK.

Here endeth the advert.

The secret fibre optic cabling

Wouldn't it be great to have fibre optic cabling running through the islands so we could all get really high speed broadband and all other associated services.

We already have it.

That is 'we' in the sense of 'not us'.

According to the Gazette, Transportation Committee last week were told that:

BT have a fibre optic cable located in the verge of the existing causeway and wish the Comhairle to duct this cable through the area of new works.

There are (were?) similar cables running to Stornoway Airport and hence on to Faslane which were put in place perhaps 10-15 years ago.

Of course, they are all military based, but instead of running civilian and public services along side, they don't officially exist.

Instead of thinking that broadband in the Western Isles could be revolutionised by piggybacking on the moving of the existing, once top secret, cables and delivering lightening speeds across Uist, we have the unedifying spectacle of a bitching session about the cost of moving a public asset so that the public can't get near it.

I am sure there are many people out there with more knowledge, but I am told that the network runs to Rangehead in the South and Clettraval in the North, and between Stornoway Airport and to at least one other 'civilian' location near Stornoway.

Further information is very welcome....

Fuel Duty rates

No-one can argue that fuel prices are very high at present - although some may argue that for environmental reasons they need to be higher - and the issue of fuel duty rates rears its ugly head again.

The argument from our MP runs like this...

The soaring prices we are seeing at the pumps now are just a glimpse of what is to come next year. In addition to rising inflation, 2010 will see increased VAT and the UK Government's absurd fuel duty escalator which will push prices through the roof [...]

We need the full fiscal powers of a normal, independent nation so we can set fair taxes that do not penalise rural motorists.

Fuel duty is about 70% of the price of every litre, and yields an additional £260m for every 1% higher. Scotland's share is therefore, in round terms, £25m for every 1% change in in fuel price.

Now the maths get more complex. And here I use round numbers for ease of arithmetic.

Price of fuel: £1.20/litre
Duty and VAT: 84p (70%)
The petrol: 36p (30%)

A reasonable price for fuel is exactly what Mr MacNeil? You have never answered this question or even given the slightest indication of the proximity of the balance position or the fuel duty regualtor, but you started issuing press vague but vituperative releases when petrol was over £1/litre, implying that 90p/litre might be somewhere in the right region.

Ok, lets redo the maths:

Price of fuel: 90p/litre
The petrol (unchanged): 36p (40%)
Duty and VAT: 54p (60%)

That 10% change in duty implies a fiscal cost of £250m each and every year.

Which could be funded by cutting student grants in half, or by removing all the support for ferry, rail, air and other transport directorate services.

I am sure that Mr MacNeil has thought this through and can tell us exactly where this money can be found, in a way that won't be painful for any sections of the community. Or not.

(I do know where it could be found, but I'd love to hear his explanation)

As one door closes....

One good thing about free enterprise is that where one company may see nothing but a cost, another is always ready to see an opportunity.

Keyfuels are ready to step in and fill the gap left by the withdrawal of BP Fuel Cards, and they plan to launch on Friday.

Even taking their press release with a pinch of salt, it appears that there are simple business reasons behind the withdrawal of the BP card and the decision by Keyfuels to step in.

I'm applying for a card tonight, and will let you know how I got on.

Update 5 minutes later: There are no service stations on the islands that take the cards at the moment, which might be what the launch is all about!

Housing stock transfer

Now remind me again, just what benefits Housing Stock Transfer has brought to the islands....

At least £1m in consultants fees, 7 years of political wrangling and the off-loading of the housing debt from the Council to the Government, and where are we exactly?

Houses not being built....
The Council filling the funding gap....
Financial crisis....

Oh yes, and very limited political say by the Councillors over the whole process. What a wonderful success it has been.

The ideological decision by Labour to drive Stock Transfer through has been the root cause of the problem and with budgets tightening there are only going to be temporary solutions to the underlying problem.

And all the time, the construction sector struggles more and more.

Fat Cat salaries

So the top public sector earners are facing a 5% cut in their salaries.

As pay cuts cannot be imposed by the employer, this is nothing more than ignorant grandstanding.

It may be possible to insist that new incoming post-holders will start on the 5% lower salary, but the time that this will take for any meaningful savings to be generated is immense; but the LibDems have already planned to spend the non-existent windfall on the lowest paid.

Of course, the SNP might just be leading the LibDems into a political trap to get the Budget through, but if they are, then we are simply going to see public sector wages increase overall, rather than being rebalanced, and will actually make the economic situation worse.

What is required is a complete review of the very fat packages awarded to some of the top public sector employees - big salary, guaranteed and generous pensions, and being virtually unsackable - whilst consultants are hired left, right and centre to advise the appointee how to do their job, and what decisions to take.

"Bonfire of the quangos" anyone?

Berneray - a jewel of the Gulf of Thailand

It's amazing what pops up on Google Alerts, but my attention has been drawn to a blog about the Koh Chang peninsula in Thailand.

It looks like the Thai Tourist Board are using a picture of the west beach in Berneray to advertise the attractions of the Thai islands.

Clear blue seas, empty beaches and welcoming locals; I can definitely see the similarities.

I took this photo of another local beach over the weekend, and the tourist board are free to use it to advertise the wonders of these islands.

Grrr, I'm a Tiger baby

A copy of the English injunction is here, the last page being the most important and interesting, especially given that he hasn't sought an injunction anywhere else in the world.

The fable of Noah

It looks like the fable of Noah has been explained and debunked by science as this schema of the Mediterannean basin being broached at the Gates of Hercules (Gibraltar) explains.

Ah, the majestic power of science over magical belief....

Jim "Two bathrooms" Devine

So the Livingston MP has claimed for a new bathroom twice in one year.

Firstly when the flat was redecorated and secondly when the room was flooded and needed redecoration.

Seems reasonable you might think.

Pardon me, but where's the contents insurance cover for the flat?

With no possibility of loss - as Parliament will reimburse all the costs - are MPs failing to take out insurance cover or, Heaven forbid, are they claiming on the insurance too?