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The truths they don't want you to read....

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Mean

Everyone who has ever failed a maths exam now has an excuse for their failure.

Apparently, the 'average' in the Western Isles differs from the 'average' everywhere else.

At least according to Angus 'Mensa' MacNeil, our illustrious MP, that is the case that he tried to make to the Office of Fair Trading.

Now let's get this right: the issue of fuel pricing is a matter of great concern on the island, and one that has been pursued by many elected representatives over many years. Not many members of the public in the islands believe the excuses of the oil companies (and the attempts to pillory the local retailers as easy targets were appalling) over the pricing of petrol.

But to blame the academic discipline of mathematics for the pricing failures is certainly a new approach.

I read the news report and laughed. I read it again, and despaired.

It is utterly incomprehensible to try to build a case for predatory pricing on the basis of the use of two different methods of determining pricing, which generally reflect the purchase price.

There is no overall difference between a monthly moving average (arithmetic mean) and a two-day moving average (arithmetic mean). And if Mr MacNeil believes otherwise then he deserves all the ridicule he gets.

There is a difference in the rate of change: but in the real world resellers tend to price on the basis of the goods they are supplied with, not with some kind of average price. In Mr MacNeil fantasy world I assume that crofters will now have to sell lambs at some kind of average price for the season, and not a price based on supply and demand to ensure that the price paid by the customers in the butchers doesn't vary week to week.

Of course not. But that lack of insight is part of the problem.

On the exact same basis, calls by Mr MacNeil for a fuel duty regulator have ceased, as the price of fuel starts to drop - as I pointed out - for such a plan would slow the price fall. But, thinking through policies seems to be a problem.....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Anonymous 18:19.
You've missed the point of Angus' argument. If a fuel regulator is put into place then in addition to it stopping prices rise, it will also stop prices falling.
Given that the treasury would not accept a regulator for the island communities; what makes you think that they would accept a mechanism that would provide an upper limit on prices, whilst allowing prices to fall?

AM has as much chance of getting the treasury to change their minds on fuel taxation as the SNP has of winning a majority in the real Parliament.

Mad Biker