Minority retort

One of the great benefits of proportional representation is that the public are more likely to get what they want, whilst politicians are less likely to be able to manipulate the system to their benefit.

It also produces some deliciously cringe-making compromises as the desperation to hold onto power outweighs every other factor.

So it will be this week as the first SNP Budget attempts to make its way through Parliament.

The balance of power - for this matter - lies not with the SNP, but with the tantalising combination of Margo MacDonald, the Greens and the Tories who hold the votes that will make all the difference.

With the Lib-NuLab pact desperate for the budget to be lost amended in such a way as to meet the prioirities of the people the Lib-NuLab pact for purely altruistic reasons (i.e. so that they don't get embarrassed by what they should have done over the past 8 years), the problem is clear.

As someone who marched along Princes Street on many occasions decrying Thatcher, supporting the miners, opposing the cuts in whatever, and who has probably graced the photo-files of MI5 the Tories are beyond the pale. Indeed, the SNP used to have a policy of 'no deals' with the Tories, until .... well when exactly.

To win seats in Edinburgh and Fife a new Forth crossing was promised, which has alienated the Greens. Who were kind of pissed-off about the airport expansions, new road building and (soto voce) the weak committment to renewables before they realised the power they were wielding.

Margo, being less beholden to anyone except Margo (and that's a complement) has already extracted promises, commitments and money for her chosen projects. And in fine style she has then sat back and demanded more. And she will probably get it all.

If the budget goes through, the SNP will be branded as Tartan Tories again, and they will have to rely on the Tories each and every year to pass the budgets, which will not be very comfortable come the next elections.

However, carefully considering the voting position I suspect that the Budget will be lost and the process will start again, resulting in more changes in the promises, and a blame game between the SNP and Labour. That will be entertaining if not enlightening, and it will be a bitter, bitter, vicious scrap. But only the first of four.

Update 20:20
The toys are out of the pram, as Salmond threatens to resign if the Budget is not passed. Although claiming to be confident of success, this behaviour suggests that the parliamentary arithmetic is on a knife-edge and the pressure is telling.

It is not very edifying, and possibly pointless. I thought that the elections were every four years, and couldn't be any sooner, meaning that a hung Parliament had to struggle on and find a majority issue by issue. That would be a hellish situation for Scotland for the next three years but should produce a better Parliament and better Parliamentarians in the long-run. If they don't kill each other first. Which might in itself be entertaining.

Update 6/2/08
The BBC refreshes my memory about the possible sequence of events. In the event of the Resignation of the First Minister, there are 28 days in which a new First Minister can be elected. Failing which, with the support of 2/3 of the MSPs, a new election can be called.

With 129 MSPs, Labour has a blocking minority for the calling of a new election. Can you imagine Labour candidates standing in a snap election? Turkeys and Xmas.