As the local election descends into a farcical battle of the insults in Heb News, there is certainly more heat than light being shone on the whole process.
Is it just me, or is this the least issue-driven, least-interesting and lowest-key election campaign in decades? There has not even been any of the usual smear tactics to enliven and muddy the waters.
Election material has been sparse, and generally uninspiring, and my hopes that one candidate would pull something out of the hat (either by making a wonderful pledge or by shooting themselves in the foot) has come to nothing. Posters are sparse, except on lampposts; car stickers are difficult to sport; and I spotted a lot of people who style themselves 'party activists' bunking off from the campaign on key campaigning days.
So here is my take on the outcome - disclosure: I've already voted by post - heavily laced with cynicism. Remember, we get who 30% of the electorate vote for, and not necessarily the best candidate.
Sheena Norquay: rumoured to have finally found her way here, and been escorted to the Rangers Club last night by senior Labour activists (!). Launching the campaign at Achmore pier on Friday. No hoper, and knows it.
Jean Davis: you know that she should win this election, having put forward sensible policies and (mostly) stayed out of the slanging match. Working hard on the campaign, but not getting great press coverage, as I suspect the election team is very small. Profiting from the impact Clegg has made, and will dramatically improve on past results. Should really be the winner, but likely to come a close 4th.
Murdo Murray: I'm not seeing much overt activity from Murdo, but that is because I suspect that I am not part of his target group. The word is that he is working very hard on his potential voters and making a great impression, and pulling in lots of votes from young and old alike. The real grassroots candidate, and with Jean Davis he will decide the result. Likely to be 3rd with close to 15% of the vote; but is he taking the votes from Labour or the SNP?
Donald John MacSween: it all started well, but the impetus has slowed noticeably over the past two weeks. Failed to land a killer punch so far. Desperately handicapped by Gordon Brown behaving like an under-medicated day-release patient. Some sensible and ambitious proposals, but they are being lost in the general noise, and I haven't seen them properly fleshed out. Election team working hard, and this campaign has noticeably reinvigorated the local Labour Party.
Angus B MacNeil: started slowly, but his supporters are dominating the letters pages with repeated attacks on Labour. Not that all of them necessarily help the cause. Low-key, highly confident (?) perhaps even cocky, attitude to the whole affair. Sole promise is to oppose removal of RET, which is a devolved SNP policy that isn't up for removal (unless you know different) but which gets him support from across the board. Campaign workers appear small in number but very vocal.
Undecided voters: lapsing into a coma at the election coverage and turned off by most of the politicians. There are more of them than I have seen since 1987, and many of them just want to be enthusiastic enough about any party to bother to cast their votes. Many have gone LibDem, and the rest are still making their minds up.
So who is going to win?
The SNP very confidently point to national trends which indicate that Labour will lose votes, meaning they are guaranteed to hold. That is being just a lot over-confident.
Labour have the activists working very hard and they believe that they are pulling back in the votes that they lost in 2005, and are very close to winning. Hmm, not convinced by this.
The utter unscientific and skewed polls on this blog put Labour ahead, as did the
Gazette poll which has suddenly had an enormous number of SNP votes* and given MacNeil the lead. However, I think that any lead MacSween might have had has been narrowing. this concurs with the trend I am finding from speaking to people throughout the islands, that Labour are falling and the SNP rising.
Both are losing votes to apathy and the other parties which is going to make for an interesting count, and no-one should be resting on their laurels until it is all over.
* I think I know who has been blocking/deleting their cookies before returning to vote early and often.