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The truths they don't want you to read....

Friday, May 07, 2010

The morning after.....

So what was the story of the polls?

Scotland - a big swing to the incumbents, buoyed by a late rush of undecided voters who made up their minds to who - and who to vote for - at almost the last minute.

The rest - the predictable overall Tory swing, but with some wonderfully atypical results, such as Limpid Optic losing his seat to a cheeky Tory candidate. No sign yet of the English Council results, which might shed more light on what is going on, although I suspect they will just replicate the Labour to Tory swing.

Locally, an excellent result for the SNP; and Labour will need to find an exceptional candidate for Scottish Parliamentary campaign and dramatically up their campaigning skills if they want to be in with a chance.

This bit of the election has been really dull. The next few days promises to be interesting, and the five years hereafter look to be potentially exciting.

I assumed that the Exit Poll was understating the LibDem result by perhaps 10-20 seats, but it looks like their vote was more talked about than delivered. A Tory-LibDem pact looks the only way forward, although I suspect it will be more informal than either would like leaving the Tories having to tread carefully at many votes. Wily Brown isn't falling on his sword yet, but unless the likely pact falls apart he faces resignation and elevation to the Lords in short order.

Alan Johnston was making a play for the likely vacancy last night; not that I think he would be much better. The more sensible candidates are playing at loyalty until the vacancy actually arises.

In Scottish terms, the SNP position is Parliament is worse than it was, with the self-appointed king-makers likely to be ignored by the Tories. The expectation of 20 seats looks at best ludicrous, and at worst fantasy politics. The position of Labour remains entrenched, and they must be asking themselves how they ever managed to lose the last Scottish elections.

How will all this play out for the next Scottish elections? Prediction is always difficult, especially about the future*, but my gut feel is that Labour will win at the expense of the SNP, and then have to implement the Tory cuts, for which they will be blamed by the electorate.....

Interesting times ahead.

* I always attributed that quote to Mao, but it appears to have been by Yogi Berra


Anonymous said...

So after weeks of listening to the local Labour party telling us that Macneil has done nothing for 4 years, here we are the morning after. So not only has Macneil beat them, he has reduced the Labour vote. What does that tell you about DJ ? Think they will need to dump him quick and get back to the drawing board. Well done the "man who has done nothing"

Anonymous said...

Labour supporters have been saying for weeks that their man had support everywhere, everyone had abandoned ABM, he had no credibility anywhere in the islands.

But ABM increases his majority and swing over Labour.

What went wrong, Labour?

Anonymous said...

I don't think the SNP should be complacent herel. The facts are that both candidates led dull and uninspiring campaigns and both give rise to very serious doubts personally. Can't trust either of them.

So AB, you really have done very little for us, and I blame your party as as much as you, but DJ you were not the man for this.

Hope we do get a stellar Labour candidate for the Scottish elections but, knowing the Labour contingent here, I can't image where s/he will be coming from. None of the Labour councillors will get anywhere - but SURELY Dr A is ripe for booting out, if only we have a creditable candidate.

Anonymous said...

Well done to all the idiots around Scotland who pigheadedly voted Labour. You've effectively destroyed our country! Lets see how long the power hungry Gordon Brown will try and keep the keys to Downing Street.....

Anonymous said...

Not an SNP fan, but I suspect Alasdair Allan will be more difficult for Labour to "boot out" than Angus Macneil.... He's actually done stuff for the Islands.

Anonymous said...

To all the SNP supporters gloating about stuffing Labour:

Are you happy that Salmond is now trying to do a deal with Brown to keep him in power?

I'm wondering what was the point of my vote for SNP when they are trying to keep the incompetents in Downing Street!

Anonymous said...

1.38: "Well done to all the idiots around Scotland who pigheadedly voted Labour. You've effectively destroyed our country!"

Everyone who has the right to vote may vote for the candidate/party of their choice. Only an utterly arrogant and bigoted person would spout such tripe. Always remember that the 'pig-headed idiots' are the voters you need to attract in future, regardless of your political preference.

We'll no doubt find out soon just how wide of the mark your predictions are.

Anonymous said...

Hearty congratulations to the Labour strategists, correspondents and activists. Well done, you played an absolute blinder.

Anonymous said...

So why did Labour manage to increase votes and gain seats in Scotland but not within the Western Isles? Fabulous opponent? Wrong Candidate? Bad Campaign?

Let's face it, Scotland has spoken and they have said that they don't want the SNP so in order to sort out the hairy scary one in the next MSP elections they had better come up with a dynamic candidate that the entire local party is prepared to support and promote otherwise we are looking at having the SNP entrenched within the Western Isles and being totally ineffectual for many more years....

Anonymous said...

Perhaps if the local labour party had focused more on policies than conducting a hate the snp campaign they might have got somewhere. Is it naive of me to hope they may learn from this?

Anonymous said...

Whose turn is it?

Anonymous said...

As predicted, we now have the obscene prospect of the Tories in England lording it over Scotland, where they have one MP! This is unacceptable and un-democratic. An emergency budget will be implemented by the Tories and this will be compared to Maggie Thatcher's Poll Tax! Public services will be decimated. The Lib Dems will be guilty by association and will pay a high price for any alliance they care to conjure up in their pursuit of power.
This will bring about an acceleration in calls for an Independent Scotland. This is now Scotland's only hope - we have proved we can work co-operatively at Holyrood. Let's take matters one step further and begin to resume control of our own destiny.

Anonymous said...

The funniest thing that I have read over the last 24 hours is that "Alex Salmond will not be participating in any coalition". Could that be because no-one has asked..............

Anonymous said...

Re 10.36 pm comment.

Ex List MSP Campbell Martin has written in his Opinion column in as follows:

"Actually, there is a very simple resolution to all the horse-trading and hypothetical scenarios. Why don’t we just go for ‘Devolution Max’ or independence as some of us still like to call it.

"Let’s have the Scottish Parliament with all the powers and responsibilities of a normal nation, and let’s take decisions for ourselves, in the interests of the people of Scotland.

"The current SNP Government in Edinburgh is a minority administration. For it to get its legislation through parliament, it has to persuade other parties to support the proposals. That is a sign of strong democracy. Where political opponents reach agreement in the nation’s interests.

"Let England elect whatever government its people want, and let’s see Scotland once again become a full sovereign nation."

Well done ABM and your team of supporters throughout these islands. Roll on the Holyrood elections next year. AA will romp home.
Vote SNP ... to be sure, to be sure!

Anonymous said...

The Lib Dems will be guilty by association and will pay a high price for any alliance they care to conjure up in their pursuit of power.

I don't think it matters what the Lib Dems do or don't do, they will never get into power, so I think they are right to try and get some of their policies introduced via the Tories. That might even tone down some of the Tory plans to rob the poor and give to the rich. We live in hope.

Anonymous said...


Wrong, it is totally democratic. Scotland is part of the union, the Tories won. Just because they only have one MP in Scotland does not mean they can't govern here. If you extend you rational does that mean the Tories can't govern the NE of England? Or any other area where there is concentration of seats for another party.

Part of democracy is having respect for the result. If you think Scotland should be independent then that is another issue. But right now we are probably going to get democratically elected Tory government.

Anonymous said...

"I don't think it matters what the Lib Dems do or don't do, they will never get into power, so I think they are right to try and get some of their policies introduced via the Tories."

And what policies, exactly, may the Lib Dems persuade the Tories to introduce?
(i) Cancel Trident?
(ii) No emergency budget this year, to minimise risk of double-dip recession?
(iii) Reform of voting system (PR)
(iv) No tax on 1st £10k of income?
(v) Agree date to bring the troops home from Afghanistan?
(vi) Reform of the House of Lords?
(vii) "Amnesty" for illegal immigrants resident here for...who knows how long? This goes down well in Tory circles!
(viii) Green issues (targets) and carbon capture ... YES! This will do nicely! We have a DEAL. Poor, innocent, gullible, naive electorate will be none the wiser.

I can't see much scope for negotiation or agreement here between Dave and Nick. NO, any "dressed-up coalition" will be firmly on Tory terms with little by way of concession to the Lib Dems.
Nick may have better prospects speaking to Labour Leader (GB's replacement)
This is why we will be more likely to have a Minority Tory Govt and another election on 14th October (already pencilled in to political commentators diaries!).

Anonymous said...

Re 10.36pm. Your notion of "democracy" highlights the fallibility of our present voting system. One Tory MP with 16.7% of the votes in Scotland and a Tory (mal)administration at Westminster plotting to rule us all throughout Scotland ... wait for the back-lash (revolution).
Do you support the Union on these terms?
The sooner we have a referendum on independence the better.

Anonymous said...

Interesting to see Mr Salmond put forward the SNP position on coalition-building. You might think that not being an MP might disqualify him leading on this. Is Angus Robertson, the SNP leader in Westminster, happy to have Mr Salmond as the front-man in a parliament of which he is not a member? Or is Mr Salmond's bombast just too much for them (and for us)? You clearly can't keep a good man [sic] down.

Anonymous said...

Things are looking up. According to no less a man than the major of London, Alex Salmond is going to demand:

"...autobahns in the Highlands and Islands"

...if any deals are to be done. A motorway from Ness to Vatersay; just what we need.

Article here.

Anonymous said...

This all reeks of the poison pen of Poison Pat and her moody mate Janet. You know who you are.

Anonymous said...

10:27 Interesting... that merely leads to a daily Telegraph page... so no doubt you are a Tory?! (that'll serve them right for the slur)

Anonymous said...

1:48 - its funny how before the election we were point blank accused of siding with the tories in power and now we are accused of putting labour into it - doubtless we have yet to be accused of wanting lib dem policies - but it'll come!

The sure sign of a middle of the road party!