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The truths they don't want you to read....

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Election debtates

I watched with some interest the first election debate between Brown, Cameron and Clegg, and I must say it was much more entertaining and informative than I ever expected.

My expectations were very low, fearing boredom, repetition and prepared answers to the expected questions.

Instead, I found it constructive and filled with thinking on the hoof to twists on forecast questions.

It was as if they were given a script, but they then had to extemporate as the debate progressed, and that made it interesting because it always gives the opportunity for error, misstatement and outright abuse.

They became slightly unguarded at times, but no-one landed the killer punch, BUT I think that the next two debates will be even better, as they know the grounds on which they will be attacked, and those attacks on opponents which are successful, and that will allow better targeting. And more opportunity for vicious unexpected questions.

The debate winner: Brown, I think on almost every level, probably because so little was expected from him and he avoided a televisual suicide. The best debater was Clegg, but he won't win the election (emphasis added and updated after first comment). But Cameron has done enough to win overall, by avoiding anything any mistakes and by building on a satisfactory standing by making the right noises, even if they were intellectually weak.

Update: as I type ITN are carrying their poll of candidates. The low score for Brown should be compared to where he started from, which probably means that the Labour result will be slightly better than I thought some time back, by encouraging some disaffected Labour voters to actually turn out and vote. But I still think that Cameron will win the floating vote and will still win the largest number of seats in the election.


Anonymous said...

They don't agree with you on Question Time - Nick Clegg performed the best according to the panel.

Angus said...

Agreed, but there were only two runners in the race, and Clegg could perform so well because he had the least pressure on him.

I've clarified my comment, as I tried to emphasise the difference between good debating and being a potential winner. Alex Salmond would have (probably) wiped the floor with the other three, but that wouldn't mean the SNP would win the election.

The LibDems will do well, because they are not the incumbents and because of Clegg's performance, but they are still also rans.

Anonymous said...

I really wish I'd put money on a hung parliament when the odds were good. No mater how the figures stack up, my calculations keep stubbornly indicating neither Lab or Con having the necessary 326 seats to get a majority. It's just too big a swing for Con to get.

Just noticed if you take the average of the more robust polls since the election was called i.e. those polls which use random sampling, and with a significant N, then the seats compute to:

Con: 289
Lab: 285
Lib Dem: 47
Other: 29

...which puts no party anywhere near a majority. Not surprising that the catchphrase of David and Gordon is becoming "I agree with Nick"; he could yet be kingmaker.

There's also a lot of unknowns at the individual seat level. The Greens have a reasonable chance of one seat (Brighton), and thankfully there's less chance of the BNP or UKIP getting in, though they could sway a number of seats. There's also a lot of independents and local factors, plus the exodus of MPs. So, many unknowns. And still no big huge game-changing event, news or other happening that instantly swings the election for or against any party.


Anonymous said...

Clegg had little to lose and everything to gain. However, he showed his prime ministerial immaturity when he was talking about defence budgets and raised concerns about the costly need for paying for two admirals. I don't think he really understands what is involved in the military services yet and that servicemen and women people get killed often, although much less so for an admiral I suppose, but it could happen in a major conflict. That was the one error he made I think.

Anonymous said...

Do I read into your comment that you are trying to woo the SNP to take you back?
I know very few SNP supporters who would give AS(S) so much credence.
At least we know where your X will be placed on 6th May.

Anonymous said...

Are we going to get hustings on here? It was mentioned.

I'd love to ask MacSween what his voting record was on schools and windfarms at the cooncil.

It was nil of course as he has more conflicts than anyone can name.

Anonymous said...

Since the party leaders are taking their wives out on show to support them, do you think DJ will do the same ? LOL

Anonymous said...

I do enjoy RJ Martin's letters on the heb forum. Thankfully Mr RJ Martin exposes nothing more than his ignorance and intolerance. Let's hope he keeps it that way - anything else would certainly be a complete turn off for those witnessing his hardcore posturing.

Anonymous said...

Rumblings on Cromwell St about senior Nat councillor Philip Maclean harassing a young labour member on his facebook site. Is there a law against that kind of outrage? - if there isn't there should be. Why would Philip target a young man anyway?????