The report in
today's Herald suggests that the impact of freezing the Council Tax at current levels will cost £420m. How many better ways are there to spend such an enormous sum?
Probably 420 million.
The Council Tax may well be discredited, but the National Local Income Tax
promises to be worse; and although many have nay-sayed my views, no-one has actually challenged the figures I have produced, and how they will severely adversely affect the people of the Western Isles.
But the intention to freeze the figures is a spectacular misjudgement on many levels. There will be plenty of credit to the Executive in the short-term for their stance, but it betrays a lack of thought of the long-term political impact.
Councils get a lot of flak for every Council Tax increase, and I guess that they will for once get the credit for any stand still in the bills.
But the real damage will start to occur in the three years of stasis. Every Council budget cut, every saving that has to be made, and every hard choice, will be blamed on the Executive cutting the budgets, as they seek to make up the £420m shortfall. If you were the Councillor having to close a service, of course you are going to blame someone else - it's not quite the first skill you acquire, but close to it.
But that is going to be as nothing as to the next stage. The Executive introduce the NLIT, and there are two choices:
1. Find another £210m each and every year to keep bills low, or
2. Dramatically increase the NLIT bills to recoup the losses to date.
Well, I think we can rule out option 2; meaning that instead of expecting small sums from the public each and every year, the public sector will now face largish cuts each and every year for a quick and easy (and short-lived) political gain.
And then the losers in the new NLIT - such as the people of the Western Isles - start to scream, and we have some kind of balancing mechanism to prevent large increases or decreases in payments, meaning more bureaucracy, confusion and inevitably more cost to the taxpayer. Just before the next election. Good thinking!
Factor in the Comprehensive Spending Review (i.e. cuts) due to be approved by Gordon Brown shortly, which will result in large cuts for an SNP lead Executive (but, as I said before, without any political fingerprints on the whole decision making process), and suddenly the budgetary process looks complex and precarious. Just before the next election.
Oh, the political innocence of it all.