Population projections
The Registrar General hs produced a new list of expected population changes by Council area up to 2031.
The good news is that we aren't facing the worst population decline.
Only the eighth worst.
The staggeringly bad news is that we face the worst 'natural change' - births versus deaths - of minus 15%, with the next worst being a mere 9.1% drop.
The situation is remedied by a projected net inward migration of 9.5%.
Inward migration is loaded with all sorts of assumptions about the nature of the immigrants, but which I take to be primarily the older age group and largely, to put it crudely, beyond childbearing age.
The impact on the communities can easily be guessed at - with schools having insufficient pupils, irrespective of the outcome of any current consultations - and the islands becoming a retirement home, rather than a thriving community.
The good news is that we aren't facing the worst population decline.
Only the eighth worst.
The staggeringly bad news is that we face the worst 'natural change' - births versus deaths - of minus 15%, with the next worst being a mere 9.1% drop.
The situation is remedied by a projected net inward migration of 9.5%.
Inward migration is loaded with all sorts of assumptions about the nature of the immigrants, but which I take to be primarily the older age group and largely, to put it crudely, beyond childbearing age.
The impact on the communities can easily be guessed at - with schools having insufficient pupils, irrespective of the outcome of any current consultations - and the islands becoming a retirement home, rather than a thriving community.
14 comments:
Or perhaps you will just get more like me - would that not be ok?
Have you heard about the Internal advert at CNES for someone to run the Schools funding initiative. A not to bad little 70K number.
After the fiasco that is the sports centre, a more poorly designed and built centre you would be hard pushed to find anywhere, what makes them think that they have the talent within CNES to fill that position.
Daffyd :) That was not an anti-gay comment by me.
I am trying to point out that full schools and a community of retirees are mutually exclusive. Communities need to be aware of the necessary effect of changes in the population dynamics.
Likewise, a full school means more facilities required for children - something that we have historically been very poor at addressing.
This is the really important stuff that should concern everyone who cares about the future of the islands our kids will grow up in - or not if we carry on as we are. This island needs to embrace change and soon for our own good. Let's have wind turbines if we can get some common sense on scale and location. Let's push transport and communications right to the top of the agenda - and that means 7 days of the week for everyone. Let's provide the facilities at the weekends that people we need here have elsewhere and expect here - sports centre, golf, arts centre open 7-days. There is another way if our leaders are brave enough to go for it. The other way hasn't worked - how much evidence do we need?
To anon 10.40PM
That sounds like a lot of sense and the new Scottish Government should be pushing for all of it. With 4 more years (or more) to go why are they so feert of the Church and wind farm protesters' votes?
Let's see some dynamism in the Western Isles!!
Anon 6.04
Given it is internal you can be sure nepotisum will prevail and one of the grand fromages is lined up for this.
Anon 10 40 and 12 15
Couldnt agree more.The stagnation which is symbolised by the idiotic MWT will lead to further decline and send us well on our way to St Kildafication (copyright Laudrup).
Angus,
Rather confirms my remark that you scaremonger to often about population decline. Yes in the main it will be an older incomer and we will become an older community but 2 points.
Remember we are all living longer and the % of older people is increasing all over the country.
The actual birth rate for White British stock is drastically declining and the birth rate is only maintained by the soaring increase in the % born to migrants to the UK.
So in our little world where a mosque has yet to be built we remarkably have a high indiginous birth rate. As they grow like the youth in all rural areas they depart for the education and opportunities of urban areas.
Thank our selves lucky that they are at least being replaced by a reasonably affluent incoming generation to maintain the population.
I can't find any reference to the internal CNES schools funding job.
Me neither - unless someone can provide further detail we will have to assume it is an urban myth.
The 'quoted' salary would put the post holder above most Directors, so it seems unlikely.
Anon 10.40 is absolutely right.Why do we give creedence to the mindless mentality of the LDOS and their supporters who cling to a form of religion that the rest of the civilised world shrugged off in the middle ages, round about the time that it was realised that the burning of witches may not be quite the right thing to do?
These creepy would be controllers have no real concern for their fellow man\woman, they sneer at and shun the more unfortunate in our midst, and do nothing to address the real issues- under age drinking, an out of control drug problem, the disgrace of Stornoway on any weekend to name but a few.
It is time REAL Christians (who, I am convinced are in the majority) stood up to these morons who have perverted the GOOD NEWS of the Gospel for their own pathetic, narrow ends.
They deserve our pity for their false piety, so come on friends, lets Live and have some Joy, Happiness and Enlightenment in our lives!
I was sure ABM and AA told us recently they were the panacea to cure all our problems, but now that we realise that they are but mere mortals, you people need to sing out, loudly and with gusto, the following little ode-
Come gather round me bloggers,
A story I will tell
'Bout a pretty boy from the Borders
who among us came to dwell.
He charmed us all with his fair voice
And joined the local choir,
He said to us "make me your choice"
My belly's full of fire!
He carpetbagged along from Gordon,
Big Alex for to fit,
And told you all some whoppers,
In Holyrood to sit!
So there he sits in Parliament
And doesn't give a hoot
While the population's falling fast,
And withering to the roots.
Of course he didn't let you down,
you all must have mis-heard,
A referendum he did not promise
You must believe his word
But you can see him when he visits,
Next month in Februaree...
Catch him by the goolies,
And never set him free!
The day is drawing late my friends,
And I must put my pen away,
There's jobs galore not coming soon,
And you won't be making hay!
The moral of this story,
The moral of this song,
never put your faith in chancers,
You know it is quite wrong!
To the tune "Pretty Boy Floyd"
Anon 6.04 and Angus 2.33PM
The word on the street is that it's someone very high up in Technical Services and it's not Roy Cameron.......
indian burns,
As Captain Blackadder so memorably put it, "I think the phrase rhymes with 'clucking bell'..."
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