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The truths they don't want you to read....

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Boom and bust

I read today that mortgages at 6 times income are now available.

Those of us with memories of the last property 'bust' will remember the sudden spiral of lending ratios followed by a sudden collapse of house prices, negative equity, and a total loss of confidence in the Government. This lead - inexorably - to a change of Government in 1997.

Is history repeating itself? I think it will, within the next two years.


Anonymous said...

People have to live somewhere. Rent is also very expensive in most areas, and it is usually cheaper to have a mortgage than rent a similar property.

Until that changes, it'll always be better to get a mortgage than rent. At least with the former, you are, gradually, owning your property.

I do wonder if any property crash will affect the Outer Hebrides. Prices have, like the mainland, been on the rise for several years.

We've just moved the mortgage (locked in for another 2 years - HAH! Berneray people will still suffer me till at least 2009!). As part of that process, the house had to be revalued, and was left gobsmacked by how much its supposed "value" had increased.

But, it and other house prices up here are still relatively cheap compared to the mainland. So will they continue to go up here, or level out, or follow the mainland and fall?

Anonymous said...

It is obviously the work of Angus MacNeil MP. He is a disgrace; it is patently obvious that he is getting potential mortgage applicants drunk (using taxpayers money - disgraceful!), then they wake up to find they have signed up for a mortgage at 6 times an income. This is factually correct because I said so.

He should be tied to the pyramid in Stornoway and flogged with pieces of dried guga. The man has no shame!

Angus said...

It's not the direct effects that will hurt the islands, as we don't have the same speculative bubble that is happening on the mainland.

It is the knock-on effects on monetary policy, inflation, interest rates and the economic tightening that will result from a 'bust'.

We seem to benefit less from a boom, and suffer more from a bust, than the mainland.

Now, applying the same logic to joining the Euro...

George Dutton said...

"Is history repeating itself? I think it will, within the next two years."

You have got the above right and no mistake.

I was going round telling many in 1982/3 what Thatcher was all about. I forecast the 1989/90 recession in 1982/3 but was wrong about the time I said it would happen in 1985/86 and again was wrong as I thought it would have lasted longer and been more severe then it was.
But all off the above is of NO importance to what mankind will face very soon...

Today mankind in order to live as he is had to use the total output of three planets, that is NOT sustainable in the short term let alone the long term. Add to that what climate change will/may do?. Is Iraq not a warning of what happens when one nation not wants but needs what another nation has oil in order to sustain itself.
The next big recession as it will be called will not be a recession it will be a depression that will make the 1929 depression look like the good old days, but unlike the 1929 depression the one that is to come will never end. We must find another way to live our lives and sadly many will pay the ultimate price before that lesson is learnt.
I am right or I am wrong?. Time will tell.

George Dutton said...

I should have said in the above post that for many that depression has already started.

George Dutton said...

This was suppose to be for the days of bust,when we were old. And when we needed it, it was not there...And it came to pass as it always comes to pass DON`T trust New Labour...

Stolen if found please return.

On a very quiet day in the house of commons when there were only a few MPs in the house of commons a bill was passed in amongst some other bills it was a bill that broke a promise given by a Labour government back in the 1970s...

SERPS (the State Earnings Related Pension Scheme) was also known as the additional State Pension. It ran from 6 April 1978 to 5 April 2002 when it was reformed by the State Second Pension. A person who was in employment may have paid into SERPS.

New Labour have now said that...

The maximum amount of State Second Pension a person may pass on to a surviving wife, husband or civil partner is 50%.

It used to be 100% a lot of people are unaware of what has happened and think their wife or husband or partner will be looked after if they die. The surviving spouse is in for a shock.
It is also something you/we should point out to people at this election Angus.

George Dutton said...

In 2005-6 3.8m children were in poverty - in homes on less than 60% of average income including housing costs.

Figures showing a 200,000 rise in UK children living in relative poverty last year have been described as a "moral disgrace" by Barnardo's.

Copy in two parts and paste into address bar.

George Dutton said...

It may prove to be a wise move on the part of the local councils in the Outer Hebrides to start to give grants to people to reinforce houses against storm damage. Climate change may produce new records unknown to mankind i.e.wind speeds,rainfall,excessive dry/rain spells leading to foundation problems in houses etc. Being exposed to the winds that come in from Atlantic Ocean will in the future be a major problem for the Outer Hebrides I fear.

George Dutton said...

There WILL be a BIG problem for people that live in many parts of the world in obtaining insurance in the future. This will effect the Outer Hebrides. The insurance industry is one of the big backers/sponsors of the climate prediction experiment...

"This experiment was made possible by thousands off you who downloaded a computer model that performed calculations to predict future climate. This technique is called distributed computing."

This I fear will stop many from obtaining house insurance in the future. It may also effect buying a house as getting a mortgage is dependent on securing insurance on said, to cover the mortgage.

Copy and paste into address bar in three parts.